Winter lottery for 120 launches a day, then daily float-space openings from released reservations.
"From May 15th - October 15th the BLM and the USFS permit 120 people per day to launch into this section." The 2026 lottery took applications "December 01, 2025 - January 31, 2026", with results "by Feb. 15, 2026". Unpaid reservations are cancelled "and the spaces will be released", and from May 5 to October 15 "BLM updates, on a daily basis, the dates and the corresponding number of spaces available" for competitive call-in. Confirmed on https://www.blm.gov/programs/recreation/permits-and-passes/lotteries-and-permit-systems/oregon-washington/rogue-river. The winter lottery and the daily float-space openings are the scarcity moments this target watches for.
Updated , checked by hand against the target's own page.
Watched from blm.gov, the target's own public page — not a reservation system we poll.